{"schemaVersion":"decisiongarden.seed.v1","canonicalUrl":"http://decisiongarden.nex-a.net/en/public/gardens/019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc/seeds/019fb626-e0cf-79e4-830e-ba88ed9691ed","vocabulary":{"Garden":"A bounded place where Seeds, Relations, and Decisions are cultivated.","Seed":"A thought, question, fact, task, or AI-proposed Unthought represented as a graph node.","Relation":"A typed semantic edge between two Seeds in the same Garden.","Decision":"A human-authored judgment that records referenced Seeds and rationale.","SeedLink":"A navigational reference from a Seed to an external URL or another Garden; it is not a Relation."},"garden":{"id":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","ownerUserId":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","kind":"public","writePolicy":"members","title":"Youtube@Nariyachan","description":"Nariya Takemuraの youtubeチャンネル","licenseKey":null,"publicSlug":"youtube-nariyachan-019f995d","moderationStatus":"active","moderationNote":null,"createdAt":"2026-07-25T13:01:08.246Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-25T13:01:08.246Z"},"seed":{"id":"019fb626-e0cf-79e4-830e-ba88ed9691ed","gardenId":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","title":"[x-nariyachan] 外部URLの有無は到達量と価値行動を変えるか","body":"## 種別\nCause Hypothesis\n\n## 仮説\n同じ投稿内容でも、本文中の外部URL有無が24h impressionsとprofile clickを変える。\n\n## 既存観測\naccount content CSVではURLあり中央値127、URLなし中央値154。ただし投稿種別・主題・時間帯が混在している。\n\n## 評価\npending。観測差はあるが交絡が大きく、因果とは扱わない。\n\n## Controlled variable\nexternal_link_presence: URLあり / URLなし。\n\n## 固定条件\n同一主題、長さ帯、配信面、時間帯、CTA、文体を揃える。\n\n## Primary metric\n24h impressions。guardrailsはpublic action、profile click、URL click（取得可能な場合）。\n\n## 反証条件\n各variant最低3件でURLなしの改善が再現しない、または価値行動が悪化する。\n\n## 次の一手\nURLあり・なしを同じcontent family内で割り付け、24hで評価する。","rootNotes":null,"status":"open","seedType":"normal","origin":"human","attributes":{},"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","updatedBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:10:29.066Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-31T03:10:29.066Z"},"seedLinks":[],"relations":[{"id":"019fb62e-61a0-7690-890d-375373568e96","gardenId":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","fromSeedId":"019fb625-bf99-705e-844d-e080f14f0f93","toSeedId":"019fb626-e0cf-79e4-830e-ba88ed9691ed","relationType":"related","note":null,"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:18:40.795Z","fromType":"seed","fromId":"019fb625-bf99-705e-844d-e080f14f0f93","toType":"seed","toId":"019fb626-e0cf-79e4-830e-ba88ed9691ed"},{"id":"019fb62e-4f34-7b33-8288-e91ccecbadd9","gardenId":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","fromSeedId":"019fb627-6a2a-78ee-a352-1fdba391a5b0","toSeedId":"019fb626-e0cf-79e4-830e-ba88ed9691ed","relationType":"derived_from","note":null,"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:18:36.079Z","fromType":"seed","fromId":"019fb627-6a2a-78ee-a352-1fdba391a5b0","toType":"seed","toId":"019fb626-e0cf-79e4-830e-ba88ed9691ed"}],"connectedSeeds":[{"id":"019fb627-6a2a-78ee-a352-1fdba391a5b0","gardenId":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","title":"[x-nariyachan] URLありとURLなしを1変数で比較する","body":"## 種別\nExperiment / Action\n\n## 状態\nqueued\n\n## Action record\n019fb5ea-4604-70f8-9477-f9d3c9209fad\n\n## 対象\n同一content familyの公開候補。\n\n## Controlled variable\nexternal_link_presenceだけ: URLあり / URLなし。\n\n## 固定条件\n主題、長さ帯、配信面、時間帯、CTA、文体。\n\n## Primary metric\n24h impressions。\n\n## Guardrails\npublic action、profile click、URL click（取得可能な場合）。\n\n## 反証条件\n各variant最低3件でURLなしの改善が再現しない、または価値行動が悪化する。\n\n## 判断窓\n公開後24h。他の独立実験と同時進行し、同一投稿に複数experiment tagを許容する。\n\n## 次の一手\n本文完全一致の竹村承認後、割付と投稿IDの一致をfail closedで確認する。","rootNotes":null,"status":"open","seedType":"normal","origin":"human","attributes":{},"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","updatedBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:11:04.230Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-31T03:11:04.230Z"},{"id":"019fb625-bf99-705e-844d-e080f14f0f93","gardenId":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","title":"[x-nariyachan] X収益化の到達量を継続改善する","body":"## 種別\nOutcome\n\n## 判断質問\nXの収益化条件へ近づくため、何を継続改善するべきか。\n\n## 現在の差分\n2026-07-31時点で、3M impressions表示は240.7K、認証済みフォロワーは375 / 500。表示上の到達量gapが大きい。\n\n## 方針仮説\n投稿数だけでなく、計測範囲、配信面、内容、価値行動を分解し、独立した実験を並行して回すと改善速度が上がる。\n\n## 成功指標\n- account-level organic impressions 90d（正確なeligibility counterは未確認ならunknownのまま扱う）\n- verified follower count\n- 補助: per-post 24h impressions、engagement、conversation、profile click\n\n## ガードレール\n公開投稿・プロフィール変更・follow/unfollow・DMは本文完全一致の竹村承認なしに実行しない。\n\n## 次の一手\n全体計測を修正し、関連返信面とURL有無を別のcontrolled variableとして並行実験する。","rootNotes":null,"status":"open","seedType":"normal","origin":"human","attributes":{},"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","updatedBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:09:15.029Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-31T03:09:15.029Z"}],"decisionReferences":[{"id":"019fb62a-f03a-7eee-94e9-f221ebecd6ef","decisionId":"019fb628-74ba-7710-8138-30de7c5b66fb","seedId":"019fb626-e0cf-79e4-830e-ba88ed9691ed","role":"input","note":"external_link_presence実験の原因仮説。観測差は交絡があるためpending。","snapshot":{"body":"## 種別\nCause Hypothesis\n\n## 仮説\n同じ投稿内容でも、本文中の外部URL有無が24h impressionsとprofile clickを変える。\n\n## 既存観測\naccount content CSVではURLあり中央値127、URLなし中央値154。ただし投稿種別・主題・時間帯が混在している。\n\n## 評価\npending。観測差はあるが交絡が大きく、因果とは扱わない。\n\n## Controlled variable\nexternal_link_presence: URLあり / URLなし。\n\n## 固定条件\n同一主題、長さ帯、配信面、時間帯、CTA、文体を揃える。\n\n## Primary metric\n24h impressions。guardrailsはpublic action、profile click、URL click（取得可能な場合）。\n\n## 反証条件\n各variant最低3件でURLなしの改善が再現しない、または価値行動が悪化する。\n\n## 次の一手\nURLあり・なしを同じcontent family内で割り付け、24hで評価する。","title":"[x-nariyachan] 外部URLの有無は到達量と価値行動を変えるか","seedType":"normal"},"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:14:55.162Z"}]}