{"schemaVersion":"decisiongarden.seed.v1","canonicalUrl":"http://decisiongarden.nex-a.net/en/public/gardens/019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc/seeds/019fb626-bd68-7283-8cb3-822fa72507b6","vocabulary":{"Garden":"A bounded place where Seeds, Relations, and Decisions are cultivated.","Seed":"A thought, question, fact, task, or AI-proposed Unthought represented as a graph node.","Relation":"A typed semantic edge between two Seeds in the same Garden.","Decision":"A human-authored judgment that records referenced Seeds and rationale.","SeedLink":"A navigational reference from a Seed to an external URL or another Garden; it is not a Relation."},"garden":{"id":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","ownerUserId":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","kind":"public","writePolicy":"members","title":"Youtube@Nariyachan","description":"Nariya Takemuraの youtubeチャンネル","licenseKey":null,"publicSlug":"youtube-nariyachan-019f995d","moderationStatus":"active","moderationNote":null,"createdAt":"2026-07-25T13:01:08.246Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-25T13:01:08.246Z"},"seed":{"id":"019fb626-bd68-7283-8cb3-822fa72507b6","gardenId":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","title":"[x-nariyachan] 関連会話への返信面は到達量を増やすか","body":"## 種別\nCause Hypothesis\n\n## 仮説\n同じ内容品質なら、単独投稿より関連する会話への返信の方が既存の会話面に乗り、24h impressionsが増える。\n\n## 既存観測\n- 単独投稿: 124件、20,684 impressions、中央値152.5、profile visits 28。\n- 返信: 23件、9,350 impressions、中央値44、profile visits 31。\n- 返信1件が6,761 impressionsで、CSV全体の22.5%を占める。\n\n## 評価\npending。返信合計は1件の外れ値に強く依存し、reusable ruleとは言えない。\n\n## Controlled variable\n配信面: standalone / relevant reply。\n\n## 固定条件\n主題、長さ帯、投稿時間帯、CTAなし、外部URLなし、文体を揃える。\n\n## Primary metric\n24h impressions。guardrailsはconversation、profile click、negative feedback。\n\n## 反証条件\n各variant最低3件で返信variantが中央値・guardrailとも改善しない。\n\n## 次の一手\n承認済み本文だけで割付を固定し、観測待ち中も別実験を止めず並行する。","rootNotes":null,"status":"open","seedType":"normal","origin":"human","attributes":{},"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","updatedBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:10:20.005Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-31T03:10:20.005Z"},"seedLinks":[],"relations":[{"id":"019fb62e-5b03-7f59-a11c-66cee8aa1cef","gardenId":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","fromSeedId":"019fb625-bf99-705e-844d-e080f14f0f93","toSeedId":"019fb626-bd68-7283-8cb3-822fa72507b6","relationType":"related","note":null,"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:18:39.101Z","fromType":"seed","fromId":"019fb625-bf99-705e-844d-e080f14f0f93","toType":"seed","toId":"019fb626-bd68-7283-8cb3-822fa72507b6"},{"id":"019fb62e-49ec-7337-9a26-2e7273101bfb","gardenId":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","fromSeedId":"019fb627-3855-7fa8-99bf-7ae53ab2d551","toSeedId":"019fb626-bd68-7283-8cb3-822fa72507b6","relationType":"derived_from","note":null,"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:18:34.727Z","fromType":"seed","fromId":"019fb627-3855-7fa8-99bf-7ae53ab2d551","toType":"seed","toId":"019fb626-bd68-7283-8cb3-822fa72507b6"}],"connectedSeeds":[{"id":"019fb627-3855-7fa8-99bf-7ae53ab2d551","gardenId":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","title":"[x-nariyachan] 単独投稿と関連返信を1変数で比較する","body":"## 種別\nExperiment / Action\n\n## 状態\nqueued\n\n## Action record\n019fb5ea-4604-70f8-9477-f9d20e9d691b\n\n## 対象\n関連会話が存在する公開候補。\n\n## Controlled variable\n配信面だけ: standalone / relevant reply。\n\n## 固定条件\n主題、長さ帯、時間帯、CTAなし、URLなし、文体。\n\n## Primary metric\n24h impressions。\n\n## Guardrails\nconversation、profile click、negative feedback、内容の自然さ。\n\n## 反証条件\n各variant最低3件で返信variantの中央値が改善しない、またはguardrailが悪化する。\n\n## 判断窓\n公開後24h。観測待ち中はURL実験など独立実験を進める。\n\n## 次の一手\n本文完全一致の竹村承認後に割付し、公開済みIDへ実験タグを複数付与できる形で記録する。","rootNotes":null,"status":"open","seedType":"normal","origin":"human","attributes":{},"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","updatedBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:10:51.472Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-31T03:10:51.472Z"},{"id":"019fb625-bf99-705e-844d-e080f14f0f93","gardenId":"019f995d-7b16-78e0-9180-48266a2eabdc","title":"[x-nariyachan] X収益化の到達量を継続改善する","body":"## 種別\nOutcome\n\n## 判断質問\nXの収益化条件へ近づくため、何を継続改善するべきか。\n\n## 現在の差分\n2026-07-31時点で、3M impressions表示は240.7K、認証済みフォロワーは375 / 500。表示上の到達量gapが大きい。\n\n## 方針仮説\n投稿数だけでなく、計測範囲、配信面、内容、価値行動を分解し、独立した実験を並行して回すと改善速度が上がる。\n\n## 成功指標\n- account-level organic impressions 90d（正確なeligibility counterは未確認ならunknownのまま扱う）\n- verified follower count\n- 補助: per-post 24h impressions、engagement、conversation、profile click\n\n## ガードレール\n公開投稿・プロフィール変更・follow/unfollow・DMは本文完全一致の竹村承認なしに実行しない。\n\n## 次の一手\n全体計測を修正し、関連返信面とURL有無を別のcontrolled variableとして並行実験する。","rootNotes":null,"status":"open","seedType":"normal","origin":"human","attributes":{},"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","updatedBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:09:15.029Z","updatedAt":"2026-07-31T03:09:15.029Z"}],"decisionReferences":[{"id":"019fb62a-f03a-79aa-84e2-37a5ee41b0a0","decisionId":"019fb628-74ba-7710-8138-30de7c5b66fb","seedId":"019fb626-bd68-7283-8cb3-822fa72507b6","role":"input","note":"distribution_surface実験の原因仮説。外れ値依存のためpending。","snapshot":{"body":"## 種別\nCause Hypothesis\n\n## 仮説\n同じ内容品質なら、単独投稿より関連する会話への返信の方が既存の会話面に乗り、24h impressionsが増える。\n\n## 既存観測\n- 単独投稿: 124件、20,684 impressions、中央値152.5、profile visits 28。\n- 返信: 23件、9,350 impressions、中央値44、profile visits 31。\n- 返信1件が6,761 impressionsで、CSV全体の22.5%を占める。\n\n## 評価\npending。返信合計は1件の外れ値に強く依存し、reusable ruleとは言えない。\n\n## Controlled variable\n配信面: standalone / relevant reply。\n\n## 固定条件\n主題、長さ帯、投稿時間帯、CTAなし、外部URLなし、文体を揃える。\n\n## Primary metric\n24h impressions。guardrailsはconversation、profile click、negative feedback。\n\n## 反証条件\n各variant最低3件で返信variantが中央値・guardrailとも改善しない。\n\n## 次の一手\n承認済み本文だけで割付を固定し、観測待ち中も別実験を止めず並行する。","title":"[x-nariyachan] 関連会話への返信面は到達量を増やすか","seedType":"normal"},"createdBy":"019f8e4b-b2eb-7e97-8ff2-a3d4dded8c91","createdAt":"2026-07-31T03:14:55.162Z"}]}